How do you define success for the FSP?
In order to achieve your definition of success, what is the minimum number of movers we need?
From my perspective, the FSP is the most successful libertarian political project to date
However, we’re just getting started.
Here is what full success looks like for me:
A population that overwhelmingly votes for libertarian policies, including more controversial policies such as:
Elimination of all occupational licensure
Elimination of all medical regulation
Decriminalization of all drugs, prostitution, and gambling
Divestiture of most state-owned properties (schools, roads, power stations, etc.)
Nullification of the federal income tax
Easy, fast, and cheap business creation and operation
Abundant power, water, and other raw materials
Peaceful, safe, and friendly communities
Explicit, enforceable governance contracts with real teeth for failure to meet terms
Low or no taxes
Low or no barriers to trade
Strong governance mechanisms to combat systemic bias, rational ignorance, and rational irrationality
Strong enculturation mechanisms for children, immigrants, and AIs
Codified processes for secession, expansion, or merger
A high threshold for entering war with other countries, but self-defense capabilities so intimidating that the US federal government has little incentive to invade New Hampshire. Think Switzerland or Singapore.
A hub of international trade, finance, and manufacturing. Think Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai.
A high tolerance for risk and self-determination, but a low tolerance for externalities. For example, take whatever drugs you like, but face exponentially increasing fines if you cause accidents, behave belligerently, or otherwise cause harm to unwilling third parties.
A growing population of libertarians (high birthrate, streamlined immigration).
Expansion of New Hampshire territory onto seasteads and a few other strongholds (charter cities, small nations, or island nations).
To enact and maintain our most hardcore policies, I think libertarians will need to outnumber both the Democrats and Republicans by a healthy margin.
Here is my “back-of-the-envelope” estimate of the numbers we will need, given the current breakdown:
Democratic: 266,413 (27.8%)
Republican: 315,685 (33.0%)
Libertarian: 65,000 (estimate; most register as Republicans)
Undeclared: 375,092 (39.2%)
So, to outnumber both the Republicans and the Democrats, we would need to recruit somewhere around 215,000 additional libertarians. That would put the parties at the following numbers:
Libertarians: 280,000
Republicans: 250,000
Democrats: 270,000
Undeclared: 380,000
However, this assumes that Republicans (conservatives) and Democrats (progressives) do not join forces.
If the libertarians grow to ~280,000, the conservatives and progressives could very well merge to form a ~520,000 “Republicrat” coalition (since they are more similar to each other than they are to libertarians).
In that case, the libertarians would need to grow by another 300,000 to ensure control.
Assuming only libertarians grew in numbers (unlikely), 520,000 libertarians would make up around 30% of the population.
This analysis does not take into account what the undeclared folks would do. If they broke in roughly equal numbers between the Republicrats and the libertarians, it would be a wash.
How about you?
What does FSP “success” look like for you?
How would you know it had been achieved?