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title: "Timeline photos I bet @[1203970326:2048:Ralph T. Castle] $100 that…"
date: 2016-11-09
source: facebook
type: Archer T. Ships added a new photo.
---

# Timeline photos I bet @[1203970326:2048:Ralph T. Castle] $100 that…

*November 9, 2016 · Facebook*

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![](img/2016-11-09-fb-007-img01.webp){style="max-width:100%; margin:1em 0"}
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I bet Ralph T. Castle \$100 that Trump would lose to Clinton. This is my acknowledgment that I lost the bet. Kudos Ralph to your superior foresight!\
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Here\'s my reasoning for betting on Clinton:\
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\* Most people were happy with Obama\'s presidency.\
\* Clinton\'s presidency would be more of the same.\
\* Therefore, most people would want to continue Obama\'s policies.\
\* Both polls and betting markets heavily favored Clinton:\
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[https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html](https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html){target="_blank"}\
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Where I think I went wrong:\
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\* Underestimated how much people didn\'t like Clinton\
\* Underestimated how unhappy people were with immigrants, economy\
\* Overestimated how much Trump\'s personal flaws (misogyny, pathological lying) would turn people off
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