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title: "Via @[807585187:2048:Thomas Watts] "Stepping through this, the…"
date: 2018-05-04
source: facebook
type: Archer T. Ships shared a link.
---

# Via @[807585187:2048:Thomas Watts] "Stepping through this, the…

*May 4, 2018 · Facebook*

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[http://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437](http://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437){target="_blank"}
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Via @\[807585187:2048:Thomas Watts\]\
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\"Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.\
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This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home flooding during your mortgage.\
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It's noticeably bigger.\
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Following the same procedure, we can see that even over an 18-year span we have a 10% chance of violent revolution, which is an interesting thought experiment to entertain before you have kids. It's also important to note that a violent nation-state transition doesn't just affect people who live in a floodplain. It affects everyone stuck in the middle. Especially the poor and defenseless.\"\
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[https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437](https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437){target="_blank"}
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