"Conclusions: A substantial proportion of excess deaths observed during the current COVID-19 pandemic are not attributed to COVID-19 and may represent an excess of deaths due to other causes.""
Deaths from Covid-19: Who are the forgotten victims?
Kieran Docherty, Jawad Butt, Rudolf de Boer, Pooja Dewan, Lars Koeber, Aldo Maggioni, John McMurray, Scott Solomon, Pardeep Singh Jhund
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20073114
"Background: With the spreading global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) there has been disruption to normal clinical activity in response to the increased demand on health services. There are reports of a reduction in non-Covid-19 emergency presentations. Consequentially, there are concerns that deaths from non-Covid-19 causes could increase. We examined recent reported population-based mortality rates, compared with expected rates, and compared any excess in deaths with the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Methods: National agency and death registration reports were searched for numbers of deaths attributed to Covid-19 and overall mortality that had been publicly reported by 16 April 2020. Data on the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, the total number of deaths registered in the population and the historical average over at least 3 years were collected. Data were available for 3 Northern European countries (England & Wales, Scotland and the Netherlands) and New York State, United States of America. Results: There was an increase in observed, compared with expected, mortality in Scotland (+27%), England and Wales (+35%), the Netherlands (+60%) and New York state (+26%). Of these deaths, only 43% in Scotland and England and Wales, 49% in the Netherlands and 30% in New York state were attributed to Covid-19 leaving a number of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of excess deaths observed during the current COVID-19 pandemic are not attributed to COVID-19 and may represent an excess of deaths due to other causes."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20073114v2
Deaths from Covid-19: Who are the forgotten victims?
Kieran Docherty, Jawad Butt, Rudolf de Boer, Pooja Dewan, Lars Koeber, Aldo Maggioni, John McMurray, Scott Solomon, Pardeep Singh Jhund
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.21.20073114
"Background: With the spreading global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) there has been disruption to normal clinical activity in response to the increased demand on health services. There are reports of a reduction in non-Covid-19 emergency presentations. Consequentially, there are concerns that deaths from non-Covid-19 causes could increase. We examined recent reported population-based mortality rates, compared with expected rates, and compared any excess in deaths with the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Methods: National agency and death registration reports were searched for numbers of deaths attributed to Covid-19 and overall mortality that had been publicly reported by 16 April 2020. Data on the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, the total number of deaths registered in the population and the historical average over at least 3 years were collected. Data were available for 3 Northern European countries (England & Wales, Scotland and the Netherlands) and New York State, United States of America. Results: There was an increase in observed, compared with expected, mortality in Scotland (+27%), England and Wales (+35%), the Netherlands (+60%) and New York state (+26%). Of these deaths, only 43% in Scotland and England and Wales, 49% in the Netherlands and 30% in New York state were attributed to Covid-19 leaving a number of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of excess deaths observed during the current COVID-19 pandemic are not attributed to COVID-19 and may represent an excess of deaths due to other causes."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20073114v2