---
title: ""...the epidemiologists reached their estimates by taking the…"
date: 2020-06-13
source: facebook
type: Archer T. Ships shared a link.
---

# "...the epidemiologists reached their estimates by taking the…

*June 13, 2020 · Facebook*

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[https://www.aier.org/article/professor-lockdown-now-claims-to-have-saved-3-1-million-lives/](https://www.aier.org/article/professor-lockdown-now-claims-to-have-saved-3-1-million-lives/){target="_blank"}
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\"\...the epidemiologists reached their estimates by taking the difference between observed deaths and their own agent-based simulation of COVID interventions, including the lockdowns. They then depict the difference as if it demonstrates the validity of their own simulation model, despite providing no evidence that their original simulation was correct.\
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The problem with this approach is that it attempts to imply causality by attributing the observed death tolls to the effectiveness of the lockdowns, which they then claim to demonstrate through nothing more than a self-referential appeal to their own simulation model for a "no intervention" counterfactual.\
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If that line of argument sounds familiar, it's because Donald Trump beat the Imperial College team to the punch. Citing the now-infamous March 16th ICL report by Imperial's Neil Ferguson, the American president now regularly claims vindication for his own support of the lockdowns on account of the difference between its 2 million-plus projected death toll and the actual count of just over 100,000 as of this writing.\
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As Trump tweeted on May 26,\
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"For all of the political hacks out there, if I hadn't done my job well, & early, we would have lost 1 1/2 to 2 Million People, as opposed to the 100,000 plus that looks like will be the number."\
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Whether used by Imperial College or Trump, this line of argument falters as social science because it assumes the validity of the very same forecast it purports to demonstrate. Rather than testing the causal inference that lockdowns reduced the COVID death rate, it takes their own forecasted death rate as a given and then purports to calculate the number of lives saved by simple subtraction from its own model.\"\
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[https://www.aier.org/article/professor-lockdown-now-claims-to-have-saved-3-1-million-lives/](https://www.aier.org/article/professor-lockdown-now-claims-to-have-saved-3-1-million-lives/){target="_blank"}
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