"Earlier this week, in thinking about this, I was mad. It feels, at least to me, like we have our priorities wrong. For example, Disney World is open and schools may stay closed. I “articulated” this is in an all-caps angry Tweet (everyone know this is the best way to make yourself heard).
Then I went running, and calmed down, and tried to think about why I was so mad. Was there a clearer way to express these frustrations? What is it about opening Disney that set me off?
I’ve been seeing versions of this risk graph around a lot. It lines up activities in terms of their COVID risk — opening the mail and playing tennis in the least risky group, sporting events and bars at the top. I like this graph, and I think it can be useful in guiding both individual and policy choices. It is helpful in asking both what activities you should do, and also what activities policymakers should allow.
Choosing activities closely relates to the idea of a “risk budget”. As others have noted, our societal goal is not to reduce all risks to zero (we wouldn’t have cars, or pools, or many other things), but there is a limit to the level of risk we are willing to adopt. It is appropriate to be willing to take on some risk of COVID-19 transmission, but not infinite risk.
So: let’s imagine we have a risk budget, and we’re faced with these risk-ranked activities. If your goal was to allow (or do) as many activities as possible, you’d allow the lowest risk activities first, and then add on until you hit the budget.
But this focus on risk alone misses something very fundamental: benefits. These activities do not all have the same benefits, to individuals or to society. For example, this chart ranks grocery shopping as more risky than playing tennis. Probably true, but the benefits are also considerably higher. Similarly, going to a shopping mall is lower risk than child care and school in these rankings, but I’d venture many people would perceive the benefits of school as higher.
In fact, our goal is not to get the most activities allowed with our risk budget. Instead, it is to have the highest total benefit subject to the risk budget. This is true both of us personally and of society. To make good decision with that frame, it’s not enough to have the risk graph. We need to think about these risks along with benefits. Basically, we need two axes."
https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/risks-and-benefits-matrix
Then I went running, and calmed down, and tried to think about why I was so mad. Was there a clearer way to express these frustrations? What is it about opening Disney that set me off?
I’ve been seeing versions of this risk graph around a lot. It lines up activities in terms of their COVID risk — opening the mail and playing tennis in the least risky group, sporting events and bars at the top. I like this graph, and I think it can be useful in guiding both individual and policy choices. It is helpful in asking both what activities you should do, and also what activities policymakers should allow.
Choosing activities closely relates to the idea of a “risk budget”. As others have noted, our societal goal is not to reduce all risks to zero (we wouldn’t have cars, or pools, or many other things), but there is a limit to the level of risk we are willing to adopt. It is appropriate to be willing to take on some risk of COVID-19 transmission, but not infinite risk.
So: let’s imagine we have a risk budget, and we’re faced with these risk-ranked activities. If your goal was to allow (or do) as many activities as possible, you’d allow the lowest risk activities first, and then add on until you hit the budget.
But this focus on risk alone misses something very fundamental: benefits. These activities do not all have the same benefits, to individuals or to society. For example, this chart ranks grocery shopping as more risky than playing tennis. Probably true, but the benefits are also considerably higher. Similarly, going to a shopping mall is lower risk than child care and school in these rankings, but I’d venture many people would perceive the benefits of school as higher.
In fact, our goal is not to get the most activities allowed with our risk budget. Instead, it is to have the highest total benefit subject to the risk budget. This is true both of us personally and of society. To make good decision with that frame, it’s not enough to have the risk graph. We need to think about these risks along with benefits. Basically, we need two axes."
https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/risks-and-benefits-matrix