[2016]
"Wilson was not, obviously, capable of controlling sharks’ migratory patterns or appetite for human flesh. Nor does it seem especially likely that Jersey Shore residents suddenly became confused about this fact. It’s just that the shark attacks were bad, they led to bad secondary effects, and those effects were especially salient in beach towns. People felt grumpy and panicked, so they voted against the incumbent. Bartels and Achen deploy a range of statistical tests to the election results in New Jersey, and time and again they find that “every indication in the New Jersey election returns is that the horrifying shark attacks during the summer of 1916 reduced Wilson’s vote in the beach communities by about ten percentage points"
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/14/12663318/bartels-achen-democracy-for-realists
"Wilson was not, obviously, capable of controlling sharks’ migratory patterns or appetite for human flesh. Nor does it seem especially likely that Jersey Shore residents suddenly became confused about this fact. It’s just that the shark attacks were bad, they led to bad secondary effects, and those effects were especially salient in beach towns. People felt grumpy and panicked, so they voted against the incumbent. Bartels and Achen deploy a range of statistical tests to the election results in New Jersey, and time and again they find that “every indication in the New Jersey election returns is that the horrifying shark attacks during the summer of 1916 reduced Wilson’s vote in the beach communities by about ten percentage points"
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/14/12663318/bartels-achen-democracy-for-realists