---
title: "William Kiely It's all just a gut feeling, but I  would put the..."
date: 2023-04-28
source: facebook
type: comment
context: "Archer T. Ships replied to William Kiely's comment."
fb_link: "https://www.facebook.com/dyi/l/?l=AYP2aGrGnbSo-wd4590eNVk9K7MLB9-MwKDdD_Ij3a9dP1xsS2aB2ZuNmV_ko9uvVoZtLrGOLynKCULcyAFU9ISpIm8cqCo7hnNVGh23w_0I9PjBYoruKAXfR3a5ZRY0wgYo1Gqvft4lWkWnsj1SN6WpDvlqUpHgIuDrS991WOuBPteSgCFhYPdbbv5m0ikDomo2YLkqZ-A&s=519"
---

# William Kiely It's all just a gut feeling, but I  would put the...

*April 28, 2023 — Comment Archer T. Ships replied to William Kiely's comment.*

William Kiely It's all just a gut feeling, but I  would put the probability that AGI will kill all humans in the next 100 years at < 1%.  I would put the probability of most currently living humans dying of aging absent AGI in the next 100 years at around 90%.  I think if benevolent AGI is allowed, it will reduce the number of deaths from aging in the next 100 years by 50% - 80%. I also think AGI's will help human intelligences upload into much more robust robot bodies / synthetic brains.  In other words, I think OG humans will make up a decreasing share of intelligent life.