I bet Ralph T. Castle $100 that Trump would lose to Clinton. This is my acknowledgment that I lost the bet. Kudos Ralph to your superior foresight!
Here's my reasoning for betting on Clinton:
* Most people were happy with Obama's presidency.
* Clinton's presidency would be more of the same.
* Therefore, most people would want to continue Obama's policies.
* Both polls and betting markets heavily favored Clinton:
https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
Where I think I went wrong:
* Underestimated how much people didn't like Clinton
* Underestimated how unhappy people were with immigrants, economy
* Overestimated how much Trump's personal flaws (misogyny, pathological lying) would turn people off
Here's my reasoning for betting on Clinton:
* Most people were happy with Obama's presidency.
* Clinton's presidency would be more of the same.
* Therefore, most people would want to continue Obama's policies.
* Both polls and betting markets heavily favored Clinton:
https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
Where I think I went wrong:
* Underestimated how much people didn't like Clinton
* Underestimated how unhappy people were with immigrants, economy
* Overestimated how much Trump's personal flaws (misogyny, pathological lying) would turn people off